At the start of September, the NRLA commissioned YouGov to undertake a survey of landlords whose portfolio was based primarily in England.
Unlike our quarterly surveys this research was both independently conducted and drawn from a sample of independent landlords who were not necessarily members of the NRLA.
The survey focused on the losses landlords have had to face in the wake of Covid-19, the resulting impact this may have on landlords and the supply of housing in the Private Rented Sector (PRS).
Landlord Losses
Although most landlords – over 70% - stated they had suffered no Covid-related losses, over one landlord in five (22%) had.
With median rent losses between £750 and £1000 per landlord, we estimate landlord losses to be a minimum of £320m.
Further calculations since the survey has led us to believe that, by Christmas, landlord rental losses could be at least £500m.
These are losses from arrears only and do not include the problems many landlords face (almost one landlord-in-ten) from longer than usual periods in which their properties are vacant. Using a similar methodology based on median rents, this could add around £100m to these losses.
Impact on landlords
Many independent landlords – 61% in this survey – let just one property. Nevertheless, property income represents a major portion of their income.
There is simply not the scope for landlords to absorb losses – property is not part of a portfolio of assets, it is often their sole, or major source of income.
The result? Without policy support, there is likely to be a major contraction of the Private Rented Sector.
Employment contraction over the next 12-18 months will certainly place mortgage holders under pressure. Many already in the PRS will need to downsize as a result of a contraction of income, for the same reasons.
With a low proportion of housebuilding focused on social housing, the PRS will be needed more than ever to supply homes in the locations they are needed.
Instead, without support and the right for landlords to take action, the supply of homes will contract – landlords will need to sell property to recover lost income. There is no sign this would lead to any long term correction in property prices.
Instead debt will build, creating further pressure on landlords, tenants and the economy. The right policies to steer the PRS at this time of pandemic are required, now more than ever.